Hoylake and Betting

I have opened an account to bet on the Open Championship but ……

Financial health warning – this is not an encouragement for anyone else to do that or follow my advice!!!

My natural instinct was to bet against Tiger who is presently showing at 20-1 to win. Ie lay or accept bets on him at that price.  This is probably the best strategy theoretically but risky in practice.  It stands to win limited amounts at high risk.  Accepting bets totalling £100 would win that amount if Tiger burns but would lose £2000 if he somehow wins.  Do I think he is good value at 20-1? Emphatic no!!  But is it a sensible betting move.  Again no.

I have gone for a more mathematically based system. Mini max theory or dynamic betting.  I have chosen 5 outsiders and put small each way bets on all of them.

Senden           125-1

Karlsson               80-1

Blixt                      100-1

F Molinari             80-1

Oosthuizen           66-1

The theory is that if one or more have a good / great first round their odds will drop significantly and I will then lay the bet on them to guarantee a return on the original bet.

Eg Assume Blixt was leading or in the top 3 after the first round and his odds came down to 20-1. I would accept a bet of £40.  The arithmetic is – If Blixt wins I receive £1000 for my original £10 bet at 100-1.  I would have to pay out £800 for the £40 bet I accepted at 20-1.  Net profit £200.

If Blixt doesn’t win I lose my original £10 stake but keep the £40 bet I have laid. Net profit £30.

Limited outlay. Minimal risk and potential to rebet at any time, even during the final round.

Footnote. This is a simplified version of the tactics.  With one or more players in the first 15 after the first round it might be better to keep the bet running until the end of the second round when the odds would shorten much more if the players concerned were still in the hunt.

At worst it gives the illusion, for a few hours, that I can pick a long price winner!! Recent results (last 10 years) suggest that ‘non star’ players are winning more tournaments including Majors.

One thought on “Hoylake and Betting

  1. Jim,
    Enjoying working through your archives.
    Should have taken my own advice from Wednesday lunchtime and bet Karlsson @ 125/1.(still that price on Sunday morning)
    Still looks like “value”- the most expensive word in gambling- @ 80′s.
    Let me have your e.mail address – I’ve a couple of comments too long for the Blog.

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